Daily Kos

Website: http://loadedorygun.net
Email: loadedorygun@gmail.com

Portland, OR

"Optimizing McCain" FREE AND EASY WIDGETS!

Mon Jun 09, 2008 at 01:55:24 PM PDT

Hi folks--
Over at Loaded Orygun, we got pretty excited about the early start on defining John McCain. We took to heart Chris Bowers' analysis, research and call to action at Open Left, and are helping to push negative stories about McCain up the search engines as we speak.

But we wanted to do more. Specifically, my new web ace/editor petrichor did. We think it's a great idea, but even for a lot of bloggers the whole notion of pasting links by hand probably takes some of the steam out of the initiative for a lot of folks. What if there were some really, REALLY easy ways to do the job?

Announcing the latest weapon to educate people on the REAL John McCain: optimization widgets!

{read more, below, or click the links above to get your widget code}

Another OR Super for Obama: Wayne Kinney

Wed May 28, 2008 at 03:44:05 PM PDT

Released by Democratic Party of Oregon, the endorsement of Barack Obama by DNC Committeeman Wayne Kinney (the male counterpart in Oregon to Jenny Greenleaf, whose endorsement was broken by Loaded Orygun Friday):

For the first time in 40 years, Oregon Democrats had a presidential primary that mattered. Presidential campaigns had offices in places that had never seen them before. It seemed as though you couldn’t turn around without seeing a candidate, or at least a member of the family. Turnout was the highest it’s ever been.

It’s going to be a really good year for Democrats. Oregon Democrats will be right in the thick of it.

We have Sen. Obama and Sen. Clinton to thank for that. They have run hard in the longest, toughest presidential contest Democrats have ever seen. There is no other Democratic presidential primary contest that even compares with this.

{more from Kinney, below}

OR Primary Delegates Final: O + 10

Tue May 27, 2008 at 01:18:43 PM PDT

Hot off the press from the Democratic Party of Oregon:

U.S. Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) has won 31 of Oregon’s 52 pledged delegates. He also has seven alternates.

U.S. Senator Hillary Clinton (D-NY) has won 21 of Oregon’s 52 pledged delegates. She will have two alternates.

Of those 52 delegates, 34 are apportioned by congressional district and 18 are apportioned by statewide totals.

At the state level, Obama won 11 delegates and two alternates. At the state level, Clinton won seven delegates and two alternates.

At the congressional district level, Obama won 20 delegates and five alternates. At the congressional district level, Clinton won 14 delegates and no alternates.

{details, below}

Wyden Mum on Endorsement to Protect UHC Bill

Mon May 26, 2008 at 12:13:07 PM PDT

[crosspost at Loaded Orygun, Oregon's Progressive community]

I really like Ron Wyden. He was against the Iraq AUMF and is a reliable leader of the anti-war coalition; he's fought hard against telco immunity, and he's been willing to stand up by himself and put his credibility on the line to advance the public interest.

But his courtly manner can also be a weakness. He refuses to campaign against Gordon Smith, preferring to work behind the scenes on behalf of the Democrat. He was certainly not alone, but his ostensible "support" of Ned Lamont while forgiving Lieberman's affronts rankled a lot of us. And now this, from Saturday's Eugene Register-Guard:

"He said something about a hot August night in Denver," said spokesman Tom Towslee when asked when the senator would announce which candidate he’d back for the nomination.

   Towslee said Wyden’s healthcare proposal was too important to jeopardize a potential vote in the Senate from whichever candidate he doesn’t endorse if an early pledge of superdelegate support is perceived as a slight.

{more}

Confirmed--OR-SuperD Greenleaf to Endorse Obama

Fri May 23, 2008 at 07:39:37 AM PDT

[Crossposted at Loaded Orygun, Oregon's progressive community...]

By now most folks have read Arianna Huffington's piece urging superdelegates and get Obama over the top before May 31st.

 Maybe it's pushed one of our own over the edge? Well-placed sources have told me last night that DNC Committewoman Jenny Greenleaf, a smashing woman who also happens to be a super or "automatic" delegate to the Democratic Convention in Denver, has reportedly told friends, associates and other superdelegates that she will announce her endorsement of Barack Obama as early as tomorrow--apparently ahead of the other state party officials. 

I did manage to get ahold of Greenleaf by email, who wouldn't confirm--but specifically didn't deny--her plans. This is certainly big news within the state and even among the national netroots, and you heard it here first. Maybe her going first will push others as well (although SoS Bill Bradbury has said he will wait until after primary season).

 

OR-SEN Pregame: The Last Four Polls

Tue May 20, 2008 at 01:50:30 PM PDT

[Loaded Orygun, Oregon's Progressive Community and the very first blog in Oregon to endorse Steve Novick for Senate in April 2007, is doing "pregame" Senate columns designed for both regular readers and newcomers. Check out the page as we hold our historic primaries!]

For so long in this race, we had to suffer without decent polling, or use way-too-early general election heats as a stand in for comparing the two major Dem candidates for Senate, Steve Novick and Jeff Merkley. Then when polling finally got going earnestly in January, we discovered why no one was wasting their money all that time before--huge numbers of undecideds, starting at about 70%.. Not only had almost no one heard of the activist with the hook, they didn't know who the Speaker of the House was, either.

Of  course, now that we're finally at Election Day there has been more interest and thus more polling--although to a large degree true polling results are STILL hampered by undecided figures approaching 20%.. However, in the last eight days four polls have been done by three different outfits, with two final looks coming yesterday. Let's dive in and see what they tell us, shall we?

{ah, but not before I make you jump below the fold!}

OR-SEN: PPP-- Novick 38, Merkley 33; SUSA Coming

Mon May 19, 2008 at 01:43:05 PM PDT

So you want to know how the Senate race is going in Oregon? Public Policy Polling has taken a shot at it, and from their blog we discover:

Goberman....................................................... 1%
Loera .............................................................. 1%
Merkley ........................................................... 33%
Neville ............................................................. 6%
Novick............................................................. 38%
Obrist .............................................................. 1%
Undecided....................................................... 19%

 Well now! As you can see, Mr. Novick holds a 5-point numeric edge here, with 38% of the vote and 19% still undecided. Practically speaking, as with previous polls the undecided vote is waaay too high to make a definitive call--but Novick's lead in this iteration comes extremely close to being a statistically significant advantage (2.7x2 = 5.4%  confidence interval; 5 point Novick lead).

{more below}

OR-SEN: AP Says Schumer Streak on Line

Sat May 17, 2008 at 11:13:58 AM PDT

Here's a national AP story out this morning on the Oregon Senate race:

As head of the deep-pocketed Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, New York Sen. Charles Schumer hand-picked his party's nominee to take on Oregon Sen. Gordon Smith, the last Republican standing on the West Coast.

But voters may have another idea.

Days before votes are counted in the Oregon primary, Schumer's choice — Oregon House Speaker Jeff Merkley — is in a tight battle with Portland lawyer and activist Steve Novick. Polls show the race is too close to call.

{more}

OR-SEN: Papers Give Clear Nod to Novick; WaPo Sees Upset

Fri May 16, 2008 at 01:44:38 PM PDT

With just five days left until ballots are counted, most of the papers in the state that will weigh in on their choice for Democratic Senate nominee have now done so. Steve Novick has now racked up 12 of 15 general circulation papers in the state, and they run the gamut of west, east, south, north, urban, rural, staid, irreverent, conservative, liberal, daily, weekly--you name it. If it's printed in Oregon and reaches a decent number of folks, unless you read the Salem S-J, The Bend Bulletin or the Eugene Reg-Guard you probably read a Novick endorsement.

Any candidate would love to overwhelm his opponent in newspaper endorsements, but this isn't just a run of the mill choice of one guy over another. One man has lots of legislative experience, the other has none (although more than enough policy experience). One man is his state party's leader, the other a faithful Democrat but by no means among the power players. One man has the weight of the national party dumping 400K into the race to help him, as well as the sitting governor, while the other man has his friends, the people he meets and a remarkable band of volunteers.

{Links to all 12 nods, plus a late analysis by WaPo's Chris Cillizza, below}

OR-SEN: Thom Hartmann, Co-Host Vote for Novick

Sat May 10, 2008 at 01:30:47 PM PDT

[crossposted at Loaded Orygun, Oregon's progressive community...]

Does this qualify as an endorsement? On Friday, during the KPOJ Morning Show in Portland featuring national broadcaster Thom Hartmann, he and broadcasting colleague Carl Wolfson divulged their Senate votes while taking a call from a 70-year old Aloha voter who is also going with Steve.

Click the link for the audio, here's the transcript:

Thom Hartmann: Ben in Aloha, nice to welcome you to the  show, Ben.

Ben in Aloha: Hey, thank you guys, I would really like to  thank that lady for keeping the faith out there. And I would also like to  mention Steve Novick's campaign. I'm 70 years old and I think that Steve is the  best chance that we have to move Oregon forward in the Senate --

Thom: I would tell you Ben, I voted for him yesterday. We  mailed in our ballots this morning.[emph me]

{the rest, below}

OR-SEN: Window Closing For Bets on Seabiscuit!

Tue May 06, 2008 at 03:33:36 PM PDT

While many are buzzing about NC and IN, there's also voting going on RIGHT THIS MINUTE somewhere in Oregon, as voters fill out their ballots and mail them in for counting on May 20th. With just two weeks left before then, all of the downticket campaigns are working out their last bits of pre-count media and GOTV strategy.

Which takes what, in this crazy mixed up political world of ours? Say it with me: MONEY, giant bags of money. And that means there's just enough time for one more ask before the general election.

Steve Novick, leading candidate for the Dem nomination for Senate from Oregon, has made the final call for his rag tag army of supporters to boost him once again. We did $35,000 in two weeks at the end of Q4, and topped it with $60,000 at the end of Q1. It's time to come through again for Steve--but at least you get the treat of reading the ask as written by the man himself. Steve writes as wittily as he speaks, and an amusing treat to be begged for money in such a way...

{...so I'll let him do the talking, below!}

OR-SEN: On the Ground, Stumping for Steve Novick!

Mon May 05, 2008 at 01:12:54 PM PDT

[...a diary about canvassing Portland OR for US Senate candidate Steve Novick, crossposted at LoadedOrygun.]

I suspect some may not laugh at the morbid connotations of 'stumping' for a man with a hook for an arm, but I bet Steve would, and 'canvassing' always makes me think of wrapping people in tent material, like at Boy Scouts summer camp, when you spent the week inside those heavy canvas platform tents.

Meta having been addressed and dispatched, I did indeed compel myself and two children out of bed at 8AM Saturday in order to go walk the streets edumacating Portlanders on Steve Novick, candidate for Senate.

{on the ground diary, below}

OR-SEN: Largest Paper Endorses Novick

Mon Apr 28, 2008 at 12:01:27 PM PDT

FromSunday's Oregonian, the state's largest paper--serving about 1 in 10 Oregonians:

For Democratic Senate nominee: Steve Novick

Oregon Democrats have long coveted the seat of Sen. Gordon Smith, the only Republican currently holding statewide office. They consider him vulnerable because of the way he has supported the policies of an unpopular president while managing to rile many in his party. And in a year in which Democrats are expected to gain ground in Congress, they just may be right.

We think the candidate they should send to face Smith is, in some ways, the unlikeliest one of all: Steve Novick, an Ivy League lawyer who stands 4'-9" and has a hook instead of a left hand.

This choice is unorthodox not just because of Novick's remarkable personal characteristics and history, but because the Democratic Party establishment is supporting another solid candidate, Oregon House Speaker Jeff Merkley. Merkley launched his campaign after other prominent Oregon Democrats decided not to undertake the rigors and risks of a race against a well-heeled incumbent.

 

{ the closer, below}

OR-SEN: Novick Non-Politics Interview (Pt 1)

Wed Apr 23, 2008 at 03:41:57 PM PDT

[crossposted at Loaded Orygun, Oregon's Progressive Community and an early endorser of Steve Novick for Senate...]

There's no denying Steve Novick is a political animal. He loves policy, thinks government can be run well enough to be a net benefit to Americans, and takes on the rough and tumble of campaigning with aplomb--if not with a touch of the choirboy's naivete, as to what others might be capable of.  There's no task that seems too formidable to fix for Novick, and he loves getting into the weeds on an issue.

But his singularity among political candidates is that he can walk into the weeds while leading people through them, acting as their guide and using everyday language, finally bringing them back out again to see the whole picture.

{lots more below}

OR-SEN: Novick's New Ad: "Pull the Plug"

Mon Apr 21, 2008 at 06:51:57 PM PDT

Going up statewide this morning, it's the newest from Steve Novick and the boys and girls at Eichenbaum and Associates. No winking references to his height or hook this time...but that doesn't mean the spot can't be funny, clever and dead-on, while ALSO getting a substantive message across. Check it out!



{little more below}

OR-SEN: The Best 90 Seconds of the Race

Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 07:29:33 PM PDT

As many folks know because of the Presidential primary, Oregon's day is May 20--and along with the choice between Obama and Clinton are a number of statewide and federal races. The Secretary of State race is between three Democrats with one token Republican, and the Attorney General's race has NO GOP contender, so the primary is for all the electoral marbles.

But by far the most interesting race to me is to replace Gordon Smith, primarily (pun intended) between Steve Novick and Jeff Merkley. I'll say up front I'm fully backing Novick; I think he's the more progressive candidate, the more honest candidate, the better-informed candidate, and he's exactly the right kind of change we need in Washington to get BETTER Democrats, not just more Democrats to fill the seats.

Recently the top 3 candidates participated in the biggest debate of the primary season, televised live statewide and sponsored by KGW and The Oregonian.
{more below}

OR-SEN: Major Nat'l Music Stars Endorse Novick

Thu Apr 10, 2008 at 11:29:04 AM PDT

I confess I had heard earlier this week that the leader of a Portland band that had gone national might endorse Steve Novick in the race for Senate from Oregon. They were right, it turns out, but that was just the tip of the iceberg--a whole host of national stars have come out for him. Oh, and there was something else--something YOU can get out of it, that isn't easy to get anywhere. Check it:

Colin Meloy (The Decemberists), Thomas Lauderdale (Pink Martini), Stone Gossard (Pearl Jam), Michael Stipe (REM), Britt Daniel (Spoon), Chris Walla (Death Cab for Cutie), Krist Novoselic (Nirvana & Flipper), Dave Dederer (Presidents of the United States), Corin Tucker (Sleater-Kinney), Rufus Wainwright Co-Sign Letter of Support

Today Democratic U.S. Senate Candidate Steve Novick announced he had received the endorsement of several major musicians including Portland artists Colin Meloy of The Decemberists and Thomas Lauderdale of Pink Martini.

{more if ya jump, including the special offer for YOU}

OR: Obama, Novick w/ Double Digit Leads

Mon Apr 07, 2008 at 06:18:00 PM PDT

I'm updating this diary on a rolling basis as I read comments, explore and analyze the results further. Keep checking to see if something new is there (if I go away for more than a few minutes I'll update traditionally)

This just in from SUSA via KATU, as reported on their 6pm evening news (checking SUSA's page for updates):

Obama 52
Clinton 42

Novick 23
Neville 12
Merkley 11
Lorea 6
Obrist 4
Goberman 3

More as I edit this diary, but I want to get it up because I know people are dying for OR primary info at the Prez level--but Novick beating Merkley by double digits is going to be the story of the day here!
{updates below}


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